Executive Summary: Geothermal Heat and Power Production Could Increase Dramatically

Breakthroughs in Drilling, Coupled With Better Sensing and Artificial Intelligence Could Revolutionize The Industry

  • Drilling constitutes up to 75% of project cost (depending on rock type), which, coupled with a lack of good subsurface data, accounts for the biggest project risk

  • Geothermal energy could provide up to 17% (100 EJ) of global energy needs, including low-temperature process heat and district heating (IRENA)

  • Innovator Fervo Energy was able to demonstrate a 70% reduction in drilling time at its campaign in Utah, a significant breakthrough for the industry

  • Established demand pull for shallow geothermal heat for heat pumps and district heating has underpinned drilling innovation in >2KM segment, such as using established technologies with lighter designs and smaller footprints

  • Innovation above 2KM focuses on better and more accurate subsurface mapping, faster rates of penetration (RoP), better steering, and cutting down on required staffing levels, as well as required drilling infrastructure:

    • Plasma drilling: Using high-voltage pulses or electric arcs to create intense heat and induce rock fracturing (GA Drilling, EarthGrid)

    • Jets: Exposing the hole bottom to a high-pressure jet of steel shot particles, air, hydrogen, propane, or water (Canopus Drilling Solutions, Orchyd)

    • Robotics: Using robotics/fully or semi-automated drilling processes with sensors to manage and guide the drilling process (HammerDrum, Borobotics)

  • In the short term, an established offtake market for geothermal heat will help derisk new drilling technologies, but geothermal power is limited to regions with high enthalpy resources and countries willing to pay green premium

  • Further down the line, partnerships and offtake from drilling companies and geothermal project developers will help to commercialize drilling technology from start-ups

  • More geographies will unlock geothermal power by 2030 as innovation from shallower depths commercializes and RoPs improve further, lowering project costs. This should be underpinned by the rise in long-term offtake agreements from demand-side actors, such as data centers, that will help make project more bankable
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